Modelling and Resilience-based Evaluation of Urban Drainage and Flood Management Systems for Future Cities

摘要

In future cities, urban drainage and flood management systems should be designed not only to reliable during normal operating conditions but also to be resilient to exceptional threats that lead to catastrophic failure impacts and consequences. Resilience can potentially be built into urban drainage systems by implementing a range of strategies, for example by embedding redundancy and flexibility in system design or rehabilitation to increase their ability to efficiently maintain acceptable customer flood protection service levels during and after occurrence of failure or through installation of equipment that enhances customer preparedness for extreme events or service disruptions.\udHowever, operationalisation of resilience in urban flood management is still constrained by lack of suitable quantitative evaluation methods. Existing hydraulic reliability-based approaches tend to focus on quantifying functional failure caused by extreme rainfall or increases in dry weather flows that lead to hydraulic overloading of the system. Such approaches take a narrow view of functional resilience and fail to explore the full system failure scenario space due to exclusion of internal system failures such as equipment malfunction, sewer (link) collapse and blockage that also contribute significantly to urban flooding. \udIn this research, a new analytical approach based on Global Resilience Analysis (GRA) is investigated and applied to systematically evaluate the performance of an urban drainage system (UDS) when subjected to a wide range of both functional and structural failure scenarios resulting from extreme rainfall and pseudo random cumulative link failure respectively. Failure envelopes, which represent the resulting loss of system functionality (impacts) are determined by computing the upper and lower limits of the simulation results for total flood volume (failure magnitude) and average flood duration (failure duration) at each considered failure level. A new resilience index is developed and applied to link resulting loss of functionality magnitude and duration to system residual functionality (head room) at each considered failure level. \udWith this approach, resilience has been tested and characterized for a synthetic UDS and for an existing UDS in Kampala city, Uganda. In addition, the approach has been applied to quantify the impact of interventions (adaptation strategies) on enhancement of global UDS resilience to flooding. The developed GRA method provides a systematic and computationally efficient approach that enables evaluation of whole system resilience, where resilience concerns ‘beyond failure’ magnitude and duration, without prior knowledge of threat occurrence probabilities. The study results obtained by applying the developed method to the case studies suggest that by embedding the cost of failure in resilience-based evaluation, adaptation strategies which enhance system flexibility properties such as distributed storage and improved asset management are more cost-effective over the service life of UDSs.